| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 45 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 52 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many U.S. Senate seats Democrats will hold after the midterm elections; the post-midterm Senate composition determines which party controls the chamber and affects legislation, confirmations, and agenda-setting.
Every two years roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested in the midterms, and results depend on which specific seats are up, incumbency, retirements, and state-level dynamics. Recent cycles have produced narrow margins and occasional party switches, so small changes in a few competitive states can determine control. This market aggregates traders' expectations about the final Senate seat count after the midterm cycle is resolved.
Market prices and odds summarize collective trader beliefs about each possible seat-count outcome and update as new information arrives. They are snapshots of market sentiment, not guarantees of future results.
Settlement follows the market's official rules and will use the certified U.S. Senate composition as of the event's settlement cutoff; check the event page or market rules for the exact cutoff and any tie-breaking procedures.
Markets typically count seats held by Senators formally affiliated with the Democratic Party and may include independents who publicly caucus with the Democratic caucus at settlement; consult the event definitions for the definitive rule used here.
The event creator selected 10 discrete outcomes to cover plausible post-midterm seat totals or ranges; the event page lists which exact seat totals or ranges each outcome represents.
Those contests are included if their official results are certified by the market's settlement cutoff; runoffs and delayed certifications can delay final settlement and materially change the counted composition.
Major state-level polling updates, candidate withdrawals or legal developments, official election results and recounts, changes in turnout projections, and large national events that alter voter sentiment are common triggers that move trader expectations.