| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
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| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many budget reconciliation bills will be enacted into law during calendar year 2026. It matters because reconciliation is a fast-track tool Congress uses to pass major fiscal and policy changes with a simple Senate majority, so its use signals legislative capacity and priorities for the year.
Reconciliation is tied to a budget resolution that can include instructions directing congressional committees to write legislation affecting spending, revenue, or the debt limit. Historically, reconciliation has been used intermittently for major tax, health-care, and entitlement changes; whether it is used in any given year depends on chamber control, leadership priorities, and Senate parliamentary constraints such as the Byrd Rule and parliamentarian rulings.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the legislative environment in 2026—control of Congress, the budget process, and political incentives—and update as new information arrives. Treat them as dynamic signals about the likelihood that Congress will adopt and enact reconciliation measures that year, not as fixed forecasts.
A reconciliation bill for this market is legislation enacted into law in calendar year 2026 that originated from reconciliation instructions in a congressional budget resolution and proceeded under the congressional reconciliation process.
Each individually enacted law that followed reconciliation instructions and was signed (or otherwise enacted) in 2026 is counted as a separate reconciliation bill for the event.
This market uses the calendar year 2026 (January 1 through December 31) as the relevant timeframe for counting reconciliation bills, regardless of which Congress enacted them.
Control changes that take effect during 2026 alter which party sets the legislative agenda and can influence whether reconciliation instructions are adopted or whether reconciliation bills can secure passage; bills enacted after control changes are counted based on the date of enactment.
Key determinants are the adoption of reconciliation instructions in the budget resolution, the Byrd Rule restrictions on provisions considered extraneous, and the Senate parliamentarian's rulings; reconciliation also enables passage by a simple Senate majority rather than overcoming a filibuster.