| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 5 to 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 10 to 14 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 15 to 19 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 20 to 24 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 25 to 49 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50 to 99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100 to 499 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 500 to 999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how many people Donald J. Trump will pardon during calendar year 2026 and is relevant because pardons are a consequential executive power with legal and political effects.
The U.S. president has broad clemency authority and different administrations have used it in very different ways — from few individual pardons to larger groups of clemencies. Trump previously exercised clemency powers while in office, and debates over pardons typically trigger media attention, legal challenges, and congressional scrutiny, all of which influence expectations for 2026.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of which outcome will occur, updating as official announcements, legal developments, and signals from the White House or DOJ become available.
Check the event's official rules on the Kalshi event page for the precise definition; typically such markets count presidential pardons as officially announced by the White House or listed by the DOJ within the calendar year, while commutations or other clemency forms may be treated separately if the rules distinguish them.
If he is not president in 2026 he cannot issue federal pardons, so the relevant outcome would reflect that fact; consult the market rules and settlement criteria for how zero-pardon outcomes are handled.
Most markets count the issuance or official announcement as the measurable event; whether a later legal reversal affects settlement depends on the event's specific settlement rules and any dispute procedures listed on the event page.
Settlement windows are governed by the event's official timing rules; many markets use the date on the official White House or DOJ announcement in U.S. local time, so confirm the exact time-zone and cutoff definitions on the Kalshi event page.
Traders typically rely on official White House statements, the Department of Justice clemency list, reputable national news outlets, and court filings; review the event's verification and dispute policy to know which sources are authoritative for settlement.