| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 to 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10 to 14 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 15 to 19 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20 to 24 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 24 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many people President Donald Trump will pardon during March 2026. The outcome matters because presidential pardons affect legal cases, political dynamics, and the legal status of specific individuals.
Historically, presidents have varied widely in the timing and number of pardons they issue; some concentrate actions late in a term while others distribute them more evenly. For this contract, relevant context includes Trump's prior pardon behavior, any ongoing legal cases or investigations involving potential beneficiaries, and political incentives around the March 2026 timeframe.
Market odds are an aggregate, real-time signal of traders' beliefs about which numeric outcome will occur; they change as new information arrives and should be read as an evolving consensus rather than a definitive prediction.
The market is split into eight discrete outcomes that correspond to different counts or count ranges of pardons occurring during March 2026; consult the contract page on Kalshi to see the exact labels for each outcome.
Whether pardons, commutations, or both are counted depends on the contract's resolution definition; check the market's official rules on Kalshi for the precise types of clemency included.
Settlement will follow the date convention specified in the contract’s resolution rules—typically the official issuance or public posting date from authorized sources—so verify the market’s timeline and any stated time zone on the Kalshi event page.
Resolution generally relies on official White House announcements, the Department of Justice or Office of the Pardon Attorney records, and other primary government documents identified in the contract; the exchange’s resolution policy explains acceptable sources and dispute procedures.
The market’s closing time is listed as TBD on the event page—watch the Kalshi contract for updates—and Kalshi (or its designated resolver) implements the stated resolution criteria and handles any disputes according to its published rules.