| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many Supreme Court justices will vote in favor of Louisiana in the case titled Louisiana v. Callais. It matters because the number of justices siding with Louisiana determines the legal outcome and signals how the Court is interpreting the underlying legal issue.
This event concerns a U.S. Supreme Court case that will be decided by the nine justices; markets like this map expected Court voting outcomes into tradable contracts. Supreme Court litigation outcomes are driven by the case record, lower-court rulings, legal briefs (including amici), oral argument, and the justices' prior jurisprudence rather than polling or public opinion.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of how the justices will vote and update as new public information emerges. They are not guarantees; use them alongside legal analysis, briefs, and opinion drafts reported by reliable sources.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific number of Supreme Court justices voting in favor of Louisiana in the Court's final disposition (for example, 0 through 9); the contract that matches the Court's official vote count resolves as the winner.
Resolution follows issuance of the Court's official opinion(s); timing depends on the Court's schedule and can range from weeks to months after oral argument or briefing. The market's listed close time is 'TBD,' so watch the Kalshi market page for updates and the Supreme Court's opinion release.
Key items include the lower-court opinion, the petition or briefing schedule, merits briefs and amicus briefs, the oral argument transcript or recording, and the Court’s eventual opinion and any signed concurrences or dissents.
The central actors are the nine Supreme Court justices (their legal philosophies and prior votes), the litigants and their counsel, and influential amici who shape legal framing; advocacy and new persuasive filings shortly before argument can also matter.
Resolution will be based on the Court’s official published opinion(s) and the documented votes attributed to each justice according to the platform’s resolution rules; consult the Kalshi market rules and the official opinion text for the determiner used at settlement.