| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 193 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 193-197 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 198-202 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 203-207 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 208-212 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 213-217 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 218-222 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 223-227 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 228-232 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 233-237 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 237 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many seats Republicans will hold in the U.S. House after the upcoming midterm elections. The outcome matters because House control affects legislation, committee leadership, and oversight for the next Congress.
Midterm House results are shaped by national tides, local races, and the cumulative effect of hundreds of individual contests; historically, the president's party often loses seats in midterms, but the size and direction of the change depend on the political environment. Redistricting, retirements, and special elections in the lead-up to the vote can materially alter the baseline composition of the chamber.
Market prices reflect the collective judgement of traders and update as new information arrives; in a multi-outcome market like this, each outcome represents a distinct range of possible Republican seat counts and prices indicate how traders allocate belief across those ranges.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution timing will follow the exchange's posted market rules and typically occurs after official certification of House election results or on the exchange's defined settlement date. Check the KALSHI market page and rules for the exact close and resolution policy.
Each of the 11 outcomes corresponds to a specific range or exact count of Republican-held House seats after the midterms; the market page lists the precise mapping of outcomes to seat ranges so traders can see which outcome covers which total.
Settlement follows the exchange's resolution criteria: some markets use the certified House composition as of a particular cutoff date, while others may exclude certain post-midterm special elections—consult the market's resolution rules to see whether later special elections or unresolved contests are included.
Price moves reflect traders incorporating polling, news, fundraising, and on-the-ground developments; volume and open interest indicate how much market attention there is (this market shows notable activity, with total volume traded listed on the event page), and rapid moves often follow major news or national shifts.
Open-seat races created by retirements increase volatility because incumbency advantages are absent; redistricting can change baseline partisan lean in many districts; both factors alter the number and competitiveness of districts where control could flip, and traders price those structural changes into aggregate seat-count outcomes.