| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 210 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 210-213 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 214-217 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 218-221 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 222-225 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 226-229 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 230-233 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 234-237 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 238-241 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 242-245 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 246-249 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 249 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many U.S. House seats Democrats will hold after the midterm elections; it matters because the number of seats determines party power over legislation, committee control, and agenda-setting in the next Congress.
Midterm elections determine all 435 voting House seats; outcomes are shaped by district-level contests, special elections, runoffs, and post-election certifications. Historical midterms often swing against the president's party, but district-level factors, incumbency, and redistricting mean results can vary widely year to year.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives — think of them as a continuously updating summary of market participants' views rather than a fixed forecast.
The market's close date is listed as TBD; the final outcome will be determined according to the market's settlement rules, which typically use the officially certified number of Democratic-held House seats on the specified settlement date and may account for runoffs or special-election results if the market documentation says so.
A seat is generally counted if the elected representative is officially certified as a member of the Democratic Party on the market's settlement date; whether independents who caucus with Democrats or mid-cycle party switches count depends on the market's specific settlement language, so check the market description.
Such contests can affect the final count if they are resolved and certified by the settlement date specified in the market rules; markets often state whether they include post-Election Day runoffs or only initial results, so verify the settlement criteria.
Changes in party affiliation or vacancies that are resolved before the market's settlement date will typically change the counted number of Democratic-held seats; how these events are handled is governed by the market's settlement rules.
Key movers include Election Night and subsequent vote-count updates, official race calls and certifications, scheduling and outcomes of runoffs or special elections, major polling or forecast updates in competitive districts, and significant national political events or candidate news.