| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many distinct federal government funding lapses (shutdowns) will occur during calendar year 2026. It matters because shutdowns disrupt federal services, markets, and policy implementation, and the market aggregates traders’ expectations about those risks.
Federal government shutdowns occur when Congress fails to enact appropriations or a continuing resolution to fund government operations; they have occurred intermittently in past decades when appropriations deadlines, partisan disputes, or intra-party rebellions block spending bills. The likelihood of shutdowns depends on the congressional calendar, which party controls each chamber and the White House, and whether congressional leaders use stopgap measures to avoid funding gaps.
Market prices represent the collective expectations of traders and adjust as new information arrives (budget negotiations, leadership changes, or crises). Use those prices as a real-time signal of perceived risk rather than a deterministic forecast.
The market is structured into four mutually exclusive outcome buckets representing different counts of 2026 shutdowns; check the market page for the exact labels and the resolution rules that map real-world events to those buckets.
The market closing date is listed as TBD; an open or unspecified close means trades will remain possible until the platform sets a final resolution window, and unresolved timing can increase sensitivity to late-year developments.
For most markets, a shutdown is a lapse in appropriations or a failure to enact a continuing resolution that causes suspension of non-essential federal operations; consult the contract’s official resolution criteria on the market page to confirm the precise operational definition used for settlement.
Typically each distinct lapse in appropriations that meets the contract’s definition counts as a separate shutdown; the market’s resolution rules will specify whether consecutive days or procedural continuations are aggregated or counted separately, so review those rules before trading.
Key items include congressional appropriations deadlines and the timing of CRs or omnibus negotiations, leadership contests or defections within House and Senate parties, major legislative showdowns, and sudden national crises that alter bargaining incentives.