| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than 200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many federal agencies President Trump will cut; it matters because the number of agencies eliminated or merged affects the structure, budgets, and responsibilities of the federal government.
Historically, presidents propose reorganizations and agency eliminations through executive actions, OMB reorganization plans, or by urging Congress to pass statutory changes. Actual agency closures typically require administrative orders backed by statutory authority or new legislation, and they can be slowed or blocked by congressional opposition, court challenges, or implementation complexity.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about how many agencies will be cut and will update as news and legal developments occur; consult the market’s rules for how settlement will be determined rather than treating odds as guarantees.
Resolution depends on the market’s contract language; typically it counts formal abolition or legally documented mergers/transfers of agency functions as reflected in authoritative sources (laws, Federal Register notices, OMB reorganization plans). Check the market rules for the precise definition used to settle outcomes.
The listed close date is TBD; the exchange will post the official closing time and settlement schedule on the market page. Traders should monitor the market for updates and the settlement announcement after the close.
Not necessarily—simple renaming or budget reductions usually do not count unless they are accompanied by formal abolition or a documented transfer/elimination of statutory functions as specified by the market’s resolution criteria.
Outcomes are verified according to the market’s stated resolution sources; official records such as enacted statutes, Federal Register entries, OMB reorganization plans, and other government documents named in the contract are typically used to determine the final count.
Key actors include the White House and OMB (which can propose and implement reorganization plans), Congress (which can authorize or block statutory changes), agency leadership (implementation), and the courts (which can uphold or block actions through litigation). Political dynamics and stakeholder pushback also influence feasibility and timing.