| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 300 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 300 and 349 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 350 and 399 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 400 and 449 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 450 and 499 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 500 and 549 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 550 and 599 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 600 and 649 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 650 and 699 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 700 and 749 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 750 and 800 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 800 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many executive orders President Trump will sign if he serves a second term. It matters because executive orders are a direct tool for shaping federal policy and can indicate the administration's priorities and use of unilateral authority.
Executive orders are formal directives from the president to manage operations of the federal government and can have substantial policy impact without new legislation. Historically, presidents vary widely in how frequently they use executive orders, and patterns can shift depending on legislative relations, crises, and judicial challenges. This market aggregates traders' expectations about that use over a hypothetical second term.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal of how observers are weighing the political, legal, and situational factors that drive executive-order activity, not a deterministic prediction.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; the platform will announce a final close date and the resolution date, which is typically after the presidential term ends or when the counting criteria can be verified. Check the Kalshi event page for official updates.
The market counts formal executive orders as defined by the platform’s resolution criteria — generally orders signed by the president and entered into official federal records (White House release and/or Federal Register). Other instruments like memoranda or proclamations are included only if the event’s rules explicitly state they count.
Second term refers to the four-year presidential term beginning on Inauguration Day and ending at the next Inauguration. The platform uses official presidential term dates when determining which orders fall inside the counted period.
Most markets count actions that were formally signed during the term regardless of later rescission; however, final resolution follows the platform’s adjudication rules and official records, so check the market’s rule text for the exact treatment.
Announcements of major policy pushes, changes in relations with Congress, judicial rulings affecting executive power, declarations of emergencies, and notable White House staffing or strategy shifts are all types of news that traders typically react to for this market.