| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many FOMC members will cast dissenting votes at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting. The count of dissenters signals internal disagreement about the policy decision and can offer insight into the committee's cohesion and likely future policy adjustments.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets regularly to set monetary policy and issues a statement (and later minutes) that record the vote outcome and rationale. Historically, dissenting votes rise when economic conditions are unsettled or when members disagree on the appropriate policy stance; public comments from Fed officials and major macro releases typically shape those disagreements. The current macro backdrop and any recent changes in committee membership create the immediate context for this market.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views about how many officials will dissent given the available information and will change as new data or Fed communications arrive. Use shifts in odds as a real-time signal of evolving expectations, but remember they reflect beliefs, not certainties.
The market resolves after the Fed releases its official documentation of the meeting. The authoritative count comes from the FOMC's public statement and, if needed for detail, the minutes published later; those official Fed releases are used to determine the vote tally.
Voting members of the FOMC are the most relevant: Board of Governors members and the regional Fed presidents who serve as voting members that cycle through. Public comments by the Chair and by current voting presidents tend to carry particular weight in shaping market expectations.
Stronger-than-expected inflation or labor reports tend to increase pressure for tighter policy and may produce hawkish dissents; weaker data can prompt calls for more accommodation and dovish dissents. The timing of releases relative to the meeting and their deviation from expectations will shape how members argue for or against the chosen policy.
Rapid moves reflect traders updating their view of where committee members stand in response to new speeches, a policy statement, or market moves. Such moves indicate a changing consensus but can reverse as more information or clarification arrives (for example, at the Chair's press conference).
This market counts the total number of members who vote against the committee's adopted policy action, regardless of whether their dissent was in favor of tighter or looser policy.