| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many FOMC members will cast dissenting votes at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting. The number of dissents signals internal disagreement about the policy decision and can influence market interpretations of the Fed’s consensus and future path for policy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly on a published calendar to set monetary policy; a subset of Governors and Reserve Bank presidents are designated voting members at each meeting. Historically, many meetings produce few or no dissents, while periods of rapid inflation, growth shocks, or large shifts in policy stance have coincided with more frequent or larger dissenting blocs.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants’ views about how many members will dissent and update as new data or Fed communications arrive. These prices are not official forecasts from the Fed but reflect market consensus and evolving expectations about internal committee alignment.
Settlement uses the official Fed record: any voting member explicitly recorded as voting against the committee’s action in the post-meeting statement or official footnote is counted as a dissent.
The 'next Fed meeting' refers to the next scheduled FOMC policy meeting on the Fed’s official calendar following the market listing; consult the event page for the exact meeting to which the market will settle.
The event page will list a closing time (often aligned with meeting start or the release of the post-meeting statement); the final outcome is the official dissent count published by the Fed after the meeting.
No—only explicit dissenting votes by official voting members, as recorded in the Fed’s statement or footnote, are counted for settlement; non-voting participants and informal disagreements are not included.
High-profile signals include the Chair’s and voting members’ speeches, minutes and dot plot commentary, unusual language in the policy statement, and sudden shifts in tone from known policy hawks or doves.