| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,000 to 6,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,000 to 8,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9,000 to 9,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10,000 to 10,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11,000 to 12,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12,001 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many recorded border encounters will be reported for March 2026; outcomes matter for policymakers, enforcement planning, humanitarian response, and markets that trade on migration-related risk. It aggregates traders' expectations about that month's observed encounter count.
The market is built around an official reporting source and a defined contract specification; it converts an administrative tally of encounters into a tradable question. Counts of border encounters tend to reflect a mix of seasonal migration patterns, enforcement operations, regional conditions in origin countries, and policy changes at the border.
Prices in this prediction market represent the collective expectation about which outcome range will be reported and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but real-time signals that incorporate incoming data, announcements, and participant views.
The market uses the definition specified in the contract's settlement terms—typically an encounter as recorded by the named reporting agency. Traders should consult the contract rules to see whether it counts unique individuals, group events, or each recorded apprehension.
Settlement will use the reporting source listed in the contract (the market's specified agency or dataset). The contract page identifies the authoritative publication or dataset that determines the final count.
The market's close time is listed on its page (currently TBD). Settlement typically occurs after the designated reporting agency publishes its official March 2026 figures and any contractual waiting period for revisions has passed.
Historical March patterns can provide context about seasonality and variability, but each year is influenced by distinct factors—policy changes, regional crises, and weather—so historical tendencies are informative but not determinative.
Significant moves usually follow official enforcement or policy announcements, rapidly developing humanitarian crises or conflicts in origin countries, large population movements or caravan reports, major weather events affecting travel, and preliminary or leaked operational data from enforcement agencies.