| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,000 to 6,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,000 to 8,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9,000 to 9,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10,000 to 10,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 6,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11,000 to 12,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which numeric range of recorded border encounters will be reported for February 2026. It matters because monthly encounter totals are used by policymakers, agencies, and journalists to assess migration trends and evaluate policy impacts.
Border encounter totals reflect the number of interactions recorded by the border authority designated in the contract and are influenced by seasonal migration patterns, regional conditions in origin countries, and enforcement practices. Historical context includes year‑to‑year variability and sensitivity to policy changes, legal rulings, and acute crises that can cause spikes or drops in monthly counts.
Market prices indicate how traders collectively rank the likelihood of each outcome range and update as new information arrives. Use prices as a real‑time signal of changing expectations rather than a forecast guarantee; always check the event contract for settlement rules and the authoritative data source.
The market uses the definition and dataset specified in the event contract — typically the monthly total of encounters as reported by the named border agency, which may aggregate single adults, family units, and unaccompanied minors according to that agency's reporting conventions.
Settlement is based on the official publication named in the event contract; check the KALSHI event page for the authoritative agency and dataset that will be used to determine the final outcome.
The eight outcomes partition possible February 2026 encounter totals into mutually exclusive numeric ranges; the exact breakpoints are listed in the market contract on the event page and are the reference for settlement.
Settlement occurs after the official monthly total for February 2026 is published by the specified agency; the timing depends on that agency's release schedule and the settlement rules stated in the market contract.
Announcements of policy changes or court orders, sudden humanitarian or security crises in source countries, shifts in enforcement operations, or unexpected reporting delays can all produce rapid reassessments of expected February encounter totals and move prices.