| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,000 to 8,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9,000 to 9,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10,000 to 10,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11,000 to 11,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12,000 to 13,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13,001 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the total number of U.S. border encounters recorded by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) during the month of April 2026. These figures serve as a critical metric for tracking migration trends and the efficacy of U.S. border enforcement policies.
Border encounter statistics are released monthly by the Department of Homeland Security and provide a high-frequency look at irregular migration across U.S. ports of entry. These numbers are highly sensitive to seasonal weather patterns, regional geopolitical stability, and shifts in U.S. immigration legislation and executive policy. Variations in these monthly figures often trigger significant public debate regarding national security and humanitarian resource allocation.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the total volume of encounters, reflecting how current policy and external conditions are priced in for that specific month.
The official result is determined by the monthly data published in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection 'CBP Enforcement Statistics' report.
Yes, the total count typically aggregates encounters reported by CBP across all areas of the border, including both ports of entry and the spaces between them.
Historically, spring months often see fluctuations in migration due to milder weather conditions compared to the peak heat of summer or the extremes of winter.
The market will remain open until the official data is released by the relevant federal agency, regardless of standard reporting delays.
An encounter is defined by CBP as either an apprehension (deemed inadmissible) or a person processed under Title 8, representing a standardized metric for border activity.