| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many bills will receive a presidential veto from Donald Trump during 2026, a metric that captures executive-legislative friction and affects which laws take effect.
Vetoes are a core constitutional check and have varied widely across administrations depending on agenda size, partisan alignment, and strategic use of the veto threat versus actual rejections. Historical veto counts depend on whether Congress can pass bills aligned with the president, the frequency of must-pass legislation, and the broader political calendar.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about the final veto count and update as news arrives; interpret them as a collective forecast that evolves, not as a fixed prediction.
The market outcome is based on the time window defined by the event; commonly this is the calendar year (Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026), but check the event rules on the platform for the official cutoff.
Typically a veto means a formal return of a bill with the president’s objections; whether pocket vetoes or other procedural rejections count is determined by the market’s official definition, so consult the event details.
No—this market counts the number of bills that are vetoed; whether an override succeeds is a separate outcome and does not reduce the tally of vetoes.
If a continuing resolution or funding measure is presented and formally vetoed per the market’s definition, it counts; the platform’s event rules specify which legislative forms qualify.
Major legislative announcements, floor schedules, leadership strategy on bringing bills to a vote, the president’s public statements on signing or vetoing measures, and unexpected events that change legislative priorities all materially affect market expectations.