| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $3.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of ten outcomes will correspond to the lowest observed U.S. retail gasoline price in 2026. It matters because gasoline prices influence household budgets, inflation readings, and transport costs across the economy.
Gasoline prices fluctuate with global crude markets, refining capacity, seasonal demand, and policy choices; the 2020s have seen elevated volatility from pandemic effects, changing OPEC+ behavior, and shifts in consumption patterns. Regional taxes, refinery outages, and the pace of electrification also shape retail pump prices and how low they can fall in a given year.
Market prices on this contract reflect traders' collective judgment about which price band will be the lowest in 2026; they update as new information arrives and should be read as a market-implied view, not a guaranteed outcome.
The contract's settlement rules on the event page specify the exact data series (for example, a national average retail price from an official source) and the measurement unit; check that settlement clause to see which series and whether the market uses a weekly, monthly, or annual statistic.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD—trading will close when Kalshi posts a date. Settlement will occur after the relevant 2026 observation period ends and the designated data provider publishes the required series, per the contract's settlement schedule.
Each outcome represents a mutually exclusive price band or category defined on the market page; the precise endpoints and labels are shown with the outcomes, so review them before trading to understand which band corresponds to which price range.
Common authoritative sources include the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), industry aggregators, or government statistical releases, but the contract will state the exact provider to be used for settlement—always confirm on the event page.
Major supply shocks (OPEC+ cuts or disruptions), sudden shifts in U.S. production or refinery outages, unexpected economic downturns or recoveries affecting demand, large policy actions (tax changes, SPR releases), and extreme weather or geopolitical events can all move the market quickly.