| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Below 41% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Below 40% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below 39% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 38% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 37% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 36% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 34% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below 33% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which low point former President Trump’s national approval rating will reach at any time before January 1, 2027; it matters because approval levels affect public messaging, governing leverage, and perceptions going into future election cycles.
Trump’s approval rating has moved with campaign cycles, major news events, economic conditions, and legal developments, and it sits in a highly polarized environment where shifts can be abrupt. The period through 2026 includes post‑election dynamics, ongoing litigation and investigations, policy developments, and possible new crises — all of which can push approval higher or lower ahead of the 2027 cutoff.
Prices in this market reflect the aggregated views of traders about which approval‑rating band will be the lowest recorded before 2027; they are consensus signals, not guarantees, and will change as new information arrives.
This market is divided into a set of mutually exclusive bands representing different ranges of Trump’s lowest national approval rating before 2027; consult the Kalshi contract page for the exact band boundaries and precise settlement rules.
The market will close and settle according to the contract terms posted on Kalshi; the platform will announce an official closing date or conditions, and settlement typically occurs after the final measurement period specified in the contract.
Settlement depends on the metric named in the contract (for example, a particular polling aggregation or named polls); check the market’s settlement specification to see which polling organizations, averaging method, and polling dates are authoritative.
Significant legal events can quickly alter media coverage and public opinion: high‑profile indictments, courtroom rulings, or convictions may depress approval among swing voters, while exonerations or dropped charges can have the opposite effect; the magnitude and duration of any move depend on public reaction and competing news.
A higher traded volume generally signals greater liquidity and more active interest, making it easier to enter or exit positions; nine outcomes mean the market offers relatively fine distinctions about how low approval could go, which can lead to narrower or wider trading options depending on participation.