| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $1.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $1.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how low retail gasoline prices in Texas will fall during the current calendar year; it matters because gasoline costs influence household budgets, freight and delivery costs, and regional inflation pressures.
Texas gasoline prices reflect a mix of local factors (large refining footprint, pipeline flows, and state fuel standards) and broader global forces (crude oil supply, OPEC decisions, and macroeconomic demand). Historically, Texas prices can move independently of the national average when regional refinery outages, hurricane disruptions, or pipeline constraints change local supply balances.
Market prices here represent the collective expectations of traders about which predefined price range will occur and update as new information arrives; they are a real‑time signal of perceived likelihoods among outcomes, not a guarantee of what will happen.
The market's settlement source is specified in the contract terms on the trading platform; traders should consult the market description or settlement rules on KALSHI to see which official dataset (state average, survey, or agency report) will be used for final resolution.
'This year' typically refers to the current calendar year, but the precise start and cutoff dates are defined in the market's rules—check the event page for the contract's resolution period and any time‑of‑day conventions.
Outcomes correspond to predefined price brackets or thresholds listed on the market page; each outcome represents whether the Texas average retail price falls into that specific range during the designated measurement period.
Key things to monitor include weekly inventory and refinery utilization reports, major crude and gasoline futures moves, regional refinery outage notices, Gulf Coast hurricane forecasts and advisories, and any Texas‑specific policy or distribution announcements.
Sudden disruptions typically cause rapid repricing as traders incorporate new supply constraints; final settlement still follows the contract's specified official data source and timing, and platform rules govern any suspensions, disputes, or adjustments—review the market rules for those procedures.