| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price band will represent the lowest average retail gasoline price in New York over the course of the year. It matters because gasoline price lows affect consumer budgets, business fuel costs, and short-term inflation measures in the state.
Retail gasoline prices in New York reflect global crude oil markets, domestic refining and distribution constraints, state taxes and regulations, and seasonal demand cycles. Historically prices move with crude oil trends and with regional refinery outages or maintenance; localized factors in the Northeast can produce different dynamics than national averages.
Market odds aggregate trader views about which price band is most likely to be the year’s low; movements in odds show how new information is being priced. Use odds as a real-time sentiment indicator, not as a fixed forecast, since they will change as supply, demand, and policy news arrive.
Each outcome corresponds to a specified price range (a band) that defines how low the New York retail gasoline price will fall during the year; the market contract page lists the precise numeric ranges and the resolution rules.
The market’s close date is listed as TBD on the page; the contract’s resolution clause explains the observation window used to identify the year’s low and the timing of settlement once the observation period ends.
The contract specifies the official data series or aggregator used for settlement (for example, a specified state retail price series or published report); check the contract details to confirm the exact source before trading.
Seasonal demand declines and refinery turnarounds tend to push prices lower or raise them depending on timing and scale; early- or late-year maintenance and the interaction with demand cycles can shift when and how low prices fall.
Monitor crude oil benchmark movements, weekly gasoline and crude inventory reports, regional refinery outage updates, New York state policy or tax announcements, and major weather events that could disrupt supply or demand.