| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $2.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $2.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $2.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how low statewide retail gasoline prices in Florida will fall during the current calendar year; outcomes matter because gasoline prices influence household budgets, transportation costs, and short-run inflation for the state.
Florida retail gasoline is shaped by both global crude oil markets and regional refining, distribution, and seasonal demand patterns. The state imports much refined product and is sensitive to supply disruptions (refinery outages, pipeline/port interruptions) and to tourism-driven demand swings, which have produced notable price moves in past years.
Market prices on this contract reflect traders' collective views about which low-price threshold will be reached before settlement; they should be read as relative confidence levels rather than guarantees. Always check the contract's settlement rules and data source to interpret outcomes correctly.
The contract’s settlement section on the event page specifies the official data source and exact price series (for example, a statewide average from a particular agency or a specific market-reporting service). Traders should read that settlement language on the platform before trading to know which measurement will be used.
A TBD close means the contract remains open until the platform sets a final cutoff; that timing matters because a close before or after high-demand seasons or expected events (like hurricane season) can materially change which outcome is likely. Monitor platform announcements and factor the potential closing window into position timing and risk management.
Total volume gives a rough sense of how much money has moved through this market; a few thousand dollars typically indicates some trader interest but relatively limited depth. Expect wider spreads and quicker price swings on lower-volume contracts, and check the order book and recent trade sizes before placing large orders.
A hurricane can disrupt refining, terminals, and retail distribution, usually reducing local supply and pushing prices up rather than down; therefore, a significant storm during the contract period would make the lower-price outcomes less likely. The precise effect depends on storm path, damage extent, and the speed of supply restoration.
Practical price floors come from state and local fuel taxes, mandated fuel blend requirements, wholesale refinery and terminal margins, and minimum retail operating costs in Florida markets. Even with weak crude prices, these structural components limit how low pump prices can sustainably go.