| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $4.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $4.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $3.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how low retail gasoline prices in California will fall during the current calendar year. It matters because California prices affect household budgets, regional inflation measures, and fuel-dependent industries.
California gasoline dynamics differ from most U.S. states due to state taxes, stricter environmental (CARB) blend requirements, and a concentrated refinery system serving a large population. Historically the state has seen larger price swings from local refinery outages, seasonal blend changes, and shifts in crude oil and product distribution than many other regions.
Prediction market odds reflect participants' collective expectation about which pre-specified price band will be the lowest observed this year; they update as new supply, demand, policy, or weather information arrives. Treat market prices as real-time signals that incorporate many known and anticipated factors, not as guaranteed outcomes.
Unless the event page states otherwise, 'this year' refers to the current calendar year; check the market's official rules on the platform for the precise resolution period and any cutoffs.
The market resolves according to the data source and measurement method specified in its resolution clause; consult the event page or rules on the exchange to see whether it uses an official retail price survey, EIA reports, AAA averages, OPIS, or another data feed.
CARB-mandated gasoline formulations and state excise taxes raise baseline production and retail costs relative to regions without those requirements, which tends to set a higher structural floor for California prices than elsewhere.
Yes—unplanned refinery outages or significant maintenance in California can tighten local supply quickly, often causing price spikes that alter which price band becomes the year's low; markets typically react immediately to such events.
All settlement rules, exact outcome ranges, data sources, and closing/resolution procedures are published on the event page and the exchange's rulebook; review those documents before trading to understand how the market will be settled.