| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,750.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $2,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Below $2,250.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $1,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $2,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $1,250.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $1,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $750.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range will be the lowest Ethereum (ETH) traded price during 2026 and aggregates trader expectations about ETH downside risk for that year. It matters because it summarizes how market participants view potential drawdowns and tail risk for ETH over the 2026 calendar year.
Ethereum has historically shown large intrayear price swings driven by macro liquidity, on‑chain developments, and shifts in crypto market sentiment. Since major protocol changes (like the Merge and subsequent upgrades) and the rise of layer‑2s, factors such as staking dynamics, scalability improvements, and regulatory moves have become central to ETH price behavior. Those structural factors, plus broader macroeconomic and liquidity conditions, will shape low‑price outcomes in 2026.
Market odds on this contract represent traded prices for discrete, mutually exclusive low‑price brackets for ETH in 2026 and reflect the collective view of active traders at any moment. They are not guarantees; odds can change rapidly as new information, liquidity, or sentiment shifts occur.
Most markets phrased this way use the calendar year 2026 (January 1 through December 31, 2026), but you should confirm the market's official settlement window and reference time on the KALSHI contract page before trading.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a distinct price bracket for ETH's lowest traded price during the contract's settlement period; check the event page for the precise numeric boundaries and the exact definitions used for settlement.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; KALSHI will post a closing/settlement date and the specific price reference (exchange feed or index) used to determine which bracket contains ETH's low for 2026—review the market terms for the authoritative procedure.
Yes. Significant protocol changes or on‑chain events can materially affect market sentiment and liquidity, shifting price trajectories and thereby influencing which low‑price bracket ends up being realized; markets will typically adjust odds as traders price in those events.
The reported volume is an indicator of liquidity and how much capital has been put to work on this market; higher volume usually means odds are more informative, but volume itself does not affect settlement or guarantee forecast accuracy.