| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $62,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $60,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $57,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $55,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $52,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $50,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $47,500.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which price bucket will contain Bitcoin's lowest traded price during March; it matters because traders use it to express views on short-term downside risk and volatility. Outcomes aggregate market expectations about how low BTC might fall over the calendar month.
Bitcoin's intra-month lows reflect a mix of macro shocks, crypto-specific events, liquidity dynamics and trader behavior; recent years have shown large monthly swings tied to macro policy, major exchange incidents, and concentrated liquidations. Market structure (spot liquidity, derivatives leverage, and exchange custody risks) and calendar effects can make single-month lows very different from longer-term trends.
Odds in this market reflect traders' aggregated beliefs about which discrete price range will contain March's minimum; interpret shifts in odds as changes in market sentiment and new information rather than precise forecasts of exact prices.
The market measures which predefined price-range outcome contains Bitcoin's lowest observed traded price during the March period as specified by the market rules; the precise data source, time zone and definition of 'traded price' (exchange tick, consolidated feed, or oracle) are set on the market page and determine the official low used for settlement.
This market uses eight mutually exclusive outcome buckets that partition possible minimum prices; after March ends, the official price feed cited in the market rules is reviewed and the single bucket containing the recorded minimum becomes the winning outcome and is settled accordingly.
The listed close time is TBD for this market; settlement typically occurs after the March window concludes once the oracle or exchange data required by the market rules is available—check the market page for the exact close and settlement schedule.
Historical monthly lows provide context on volatility regimes and common drawdown sizes, but traders should combine that history with current liquidity, macro calendar items and open interest; past performance is informative but not determinative for a single-month low because idiosyncratic events can produce outsized moves.
Material drivers include major macro events (central bank decisions, surprise economic releases), significant exchange or infrastructure outages, large coordinated on-chain moves by whales or institutions, sudden shifts in derivatives liquidations, and regulatory announcements that affect crypto market access or capital flows.