| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $76,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Below $78,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Below $80,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $55,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $74,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $50,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $72,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $45,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $70,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Below $40,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Below $65,000.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks which price bucket will represent Bitcoin's lowest traded price during calendar year 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader views about downside risk for Bitcoin over that year and can signal expectations about extreme intrayear moves.
Bitcoin has historically experienced large intrayear swings driven by liquidity shocks, macroeconomic surprises, regulatory moves, and supply-side events tied to mining and protocol cycles. Institutional adoption, market structure (exchanges, custodians, ETFs), and on-chain dynamics all shape how deep and how quickly declines can occur.
Market odds are a real-time expression of how participants are allocating capital across the discrete lowest-price outcomes for 2026; read them as relative market sentiment and the crowd's assessment of downside scenarios rather than a static forecast.
The measurement period is the 2026 calendar year as defined in the contract; the market page lists the precise start and end timestamps (typically in UTC) that determine which trades count toward the lowest price.
The official settlement text on the market page specifies the method — commonly the lowest traded price or the lowest value of a designated index during the measurement window. Check the contract for the exact definition used to determine the lowest price.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive price-range bucket for Bitcoin's lowest 2026 price; outcome labels on the event page show the exact ranges that will be used for settlement.
KALSHI specifies the authoritative data source or composite index in the market rules; the event page lists the named provider(s) or exchange(s) whose prices will be used for settlement.
Large forced liquidations, sudden regulatory bans or enforcement actions, major exchange failures, coordinated large sell-offs by custodians or miners, and severe macro shocks are the types of events most likely to produce deep intra-year lows.