| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 1 day | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 2 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 3 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 5 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 7 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 10 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 15 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 20 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 25 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 30 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 35 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 40 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 43 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 45 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 50 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 55 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ At least 60 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| At least 65 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 70 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 75 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 80 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 85 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 90 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 95 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 100 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 110 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 120 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 130 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 140 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 150 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 200 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 300 days | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how long the current U.S. federal government shutdown will last and matters because the duration determines economic impacts, federal employee pay disruptions, and legislative timelines.
Government shutdowns occur when Congress does not enact appropriations or a continuing resolution to fund federal operations; their length depends on political negotiations, procedural votes, and executive actions. Past shutdowns have ranged from a few days to several weeks, with impacts varying by agency and program and often influencing subsequent budget talks.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about when funding will be restored; each outcome corresponds to a specific duration window and prices shift as new legislative, executive, or procedural information becomes available.
Outcomes are divided into distinct duration windows that cover possible lengths of the shutdown; each outcome resolves if the shutdown ends within that window according to the market’s settlement rules.
Resolution depends on Kalshi’s event rules, but typically the shutdown is considered ended when legislation or an executive action takes effect that restores funding and normal federal operations.
Key actors are congressional leaders in both chambers (who schedule and negotiate funding bills), the President (signing or vetoing measures), and senators whose procedural votes determine whether funding measures can pass.
If a CR is enacted and takes effect, it generally ends the immediate shutdown by restoring funding; the market will then resolve to the outcome that includes the date the CR became effective, subject to the platform’s settlement rules.
Watch scheduled House or Senate votes on appropriations or CRs, announced agreements between leaders, veto threats or signings from the President, cloture/filibuster votes in the Senate, and any court orders or emergency measures that alter funding timelines.