| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above $4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above $4.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $7.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price band U.S. retail gasoline will reach in 2026; it matters because retail fuel costs affect household budgets, inflation measures, and transportation costs across the economy.
Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. are driven by a mix of global crude oil markets, domestic production and refining capacity, seasonal demand, and policy settings such as taxes and regulations. Since 2020, factors like pandemic demand shocks, supply-chain disruptions, and shifts in vehicle electrification have added variability to price dynamics, making forward-looking markets a way to aggregate expectations about those forces in 2026.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of participants about which price band will occur in 2026 and will change as new information arrives; they are an evolving signal, not a guaranteed forecast.
This market has 11 discrete outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive gasoline price band for the U.S. in 2026. Consult the market description on the platform for the exact numeric boundaries and resolution rules for each band.
The market close is listed as TBD; resolution timing and the specific measurement period in 2026 will follow the platform's event description. Resolution typically uses a defined public data series and occurs after the relevant 2026 observation window specified by the market.
Useful historical inputs include multi-year series of U.S. retail gasoline averages, crude oil futures and spot prices, refinery utilization and margins, inventory levels, and seasonal demand patterns—combined with past responses to shocks like major hurricanes or geopolitical events.
Major influences include OPEC+ production adjustments, large U.S. refinery shutdowns or capacity additions, sudden export/import disruptions, significant federal or state fuel tax/regulatory changes, and large shifts in EV adoption or fuel efficiency standards.
Focus on credible, timely indicators—crude futures moves, EIA/industry inventory and refinery reports, announced policy changes, and major weather or geopolitical events—because these often drive rapid updates in market-implied expectations; also verify the market's stated resolution source and timeline before trading on new information.