| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 17% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which unemployment-rate range will represent the highest monthly U.S. unemployment rate in calendar year 2026; it matters because expectations about peak unemployment influence investment decisions, policy debate, and risk pricing.
The U.S. unemployment rate is a key cyclical indicator that responds to growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and shocks such as pandemics or geopolitical events. Historically it has moved with recessions and recoveries; this market aggregates trader expectations about how labor-market dynamics will evolve through 2026. The event on Kalshi has ten predefined outcome buckets, a running trading volume (listed as $315,466), and a closing time that is currently TBD.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of participating traders about which unemployment-range outcome is most likely to be realized; they are a continuously updated aggregation of beliefs, not a guarantee of the eventual result.
The contract uses the official U.S. unemployment-rate series specified in the market description (typically the Bureau of Labor Statistics' headline unemployment rate). The outcome is determined by that published series for calendar year 2026 as defined by Kalshi's settlement rules.
Each of the ten outcomes corresponds to a predefined numerical range for the 2026 peak monthly unemployment rate; the exact bucket boundaries are listed on the Kalshi event page and in the contract terms, which you should consult before trading.
The marketplace shows 'Closes: TBD' for this market; settlement will occur after the relevant 2026 unemployment data are published and according to the settlement timeline described in the contract (check the event page for the official close and settlement dates once announced).
Each monthly unemployment report can shift expectations for the year's peak by changing near-term trends; stronger-than-expected reports generally lower short-term expectations for higher unemployment, while unexpected job losses or upward revisions raise them, causing market prices across buckets to reallocate.
Participants include retail traders, professional speculators, economists, and algorithmic traders; higher trading volume and more active participants generally improve price discovery and make it easier to enter and exit positions—refer to the listed volume and order book on the event page for current liquidity.