| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 17% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks how high the measured unemployment rate will rise at any point before 2030; it matters because peak unemployment is a concise indicator of labor-market stress and affects policy, markets, and household finances.
The market sits against the backdrop of cyclical expansions and contractions in the labor market, central bank policy shifts, and structural trends such as demographic change and automation. Outcomes will be driven by how future recessions, recoveries, policy responses, and long-term shifts in labor supply and demand play out between now and the end of 2029.
Market prices convey traders’ collective views about which range of unemployment is most likely to occur before the cutoff date; they are not forecasts of timing but of the maximum observed unemployment level during the stated window.
Check the event’s resolution rules on Kalshi for the exact series; many labor-market contracts reference the official U.S. unemployment rate series published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (commonly the headline U-3), but the market description will specify the source and series used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a range or bucket of unemployment values defined in the market description; the winning outcome will be the bucket that contains the highest officially reported monthly unemployment rate observed during the event window as defined by the exchange’s resolution rules.
The precise cutoff (for example, whether it includes the last business day of 2029 or a specific monthly publication) is specified in the market’s settlement rules; always consult those rules on Kalshi to confirm the official resolution window.
Resolution policies vary by market; some contracts use the first official publication of a monthly value, others use the final revised series—review the market’s resolution documentation to see whether preliminary or revised BLS figures will determine the outcome.
Watch monthly employment/unemployment reports from the BLS, weekly initial jobless claims, quarterly GDP prints, Fed communications on policy, major corporate layoff announcements, and any large, economy-wide shocks—these moves most directly affect the highest unemployment outcome before the cutoff.