| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 43% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 44% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 45% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 46% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 47% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 48% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 49% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high Donald Trump’s national approval rating will reach at any point before January 1, 2027; it matters because peak approval is a concise summary measure of public sentiment that can affect elections, policy leverage, and media narratives.
Approval ratings are measured by public-opinion polls and aggregations of those polls; historically, presidents’ approval peaks tend to align with major achievements, crises that rally public support, or successful messaging campaigns. For this market, the precise measurement and timing depend on the event’s settlement rules and the set of polls or aggregators the contract specifies.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which approval-range outcome will ultimately be settled as true, incorporating current polls, anticipated events, and traders’ risk preferences; they are not guarantees but real-time summaries of bettors’ beliefs and information flows.
It covers all dates up to 11:59:59 PM on December 31, 2026; the market settles based on the highest qualifying approval rating recorded within that interval, subject to the contract’s official rules.
The contract’s settlement policies specify which polls or aggregators are used; check the market rules to see whether a single poll, a defined set of national polls, or an aggregator is authoritative for settlement.
Settlement follows the event’s tie-breaking and source-priority rules: typically the highest reported value from the approved sources during the period is used, or an official aggregator’s peak if the contract designates one.
Yes, if the event’s settlement criteria accept that poll as an official source; however, many traders discount single-survey outliers, and aggregated measures often carry more weight in market pricing.
Markets price expectations and anticipate how news might move polls; traders weigh the plausibility, expected duration, and likely polling impact of future events rather than waiting for the next public-release number.