| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $800 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $575 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $600 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $700 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $650 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $550 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $625 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high the price of fertilizer will reach during the current year. That matters because fertilizer prices directly affect farm input costs, crop economics, and downstream food prices and inflation.
Fertilizer prices are driven by a mix of energy costs (natural gas is a major feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers), production capacity and outages, global trade flows, and seasonal agricultural demand. Historically the market has shown sharp spikes around energy shocks, export restrictions, or major supply disruptions, producing volatility year to year.
Market prices here represent the crowd’s assessment of which price interval (one of the seven outcomes) is most likely to contain the year’s peak fertilizer price; movements reflect new information and trader sentiment, but should be interpreted alongside external price data and market fundamentals.
The contract page for this market specifies the exact fertilizer product (for example, a particular nutrient like urea or DAP) and the published index or price series used for settlement. Consult the market's rules and settlement reference on the event page for the authoritative source.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive price range (a bin) that covers possible peak values for the specified fertilizer and reference series during the year. The listed outcome labels on the market page show the exact ranges; only the outcome whose range contains the realized peak price will settle in the money.
The market currently shows a closing time of 'TBD.' Final settlement timing is set in the contract and typically occurs after the end of the measurement period using the official publication date/window defined by the reference price. Watch the event page for updates on the definitive close and settlement schedule.
Low trading volume usually indicates limited liquidity, so quoted prices can move a lot on small trades and may be noisy signals of consensus. Treat low-volume prices as provisional information and corroborate with external fertilizer price indices and fundamental analysis.
Announcements that can shift expectations include sharp moves in natural gas or energy markets, unplanned shutdowns or restart announcements at large fertilizer plants, new export restrictions or trade policy changes by producing countries, major seasonal demand updates from agricultural reports, and publication revisions to the reference price index used for settlement.