| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 6.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 6.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high headline inflation will reach during the current year, aggregating trader expectations about the peak rate of consumer price growth. It matters because the peak inflation reading influences monetary policy decisions, interest-rate expectations, and household and business planning.
Inflation outcomes this year are shaped by the post-pandemic recovery, lingering supply-chain effects, commodity price swings, and the stance of monetary and fiscal policy. In recent years inflation has shown periods of rapid rise and then moderation, so traders weigh both incoming monthly data and central bank guidance. Market participants use incoming CPI/PCE releases, wage and employment data, and geopolitical developments to update expectations.
Market prices on this contract reflect the collective view of participants about which outcome range is most likely given available information and will move as new data and policy signals arrive. To interpret prices correctly, consult the contract’s settlement rules to see which official series and publication determine the winning outcome.
The contract resolves to a specific official statistic identified in the market’s rules; check the Kalshi market page for the exact series (for example, a national CPI or PCE reading) and the named official publication used for settlement.
The precise temporal definition (e.g., peak monthly year-over-year rate during the calendar year or another variant) is specified in the contract’s resolution text on the market page; traders should read that language to know which measurement window applies.
Each outcome corresponds to a non-overlapping range of inflation values defined in the contract; at settlement the single outcome whose range contains the official reported figure pays out according to the market’s settlement rules—see the market page for exact cutoffs and payout mechanics.
Monthly inflation releases (e.g., CPI and PCE), major labor-market reports (jobs, average hourly earnings), and central-bank policy meetings and forward guidance are the primary scheduled events that typically move this market.
The contract’s resolution rules state whether settlement uses the initially published release or a later revised series; consult the market’s settlement policy on Kalshi to see the vintage and any rules about revisions or corrigenda.