| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above $2.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $2.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $2.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $2.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $2.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above $4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high retail gasoline prices in Texas will rise during the current calendar year; it matters because peak gas prices affect household budgets, transportation costs, and regional inflation dynamics.
Texas is a major producer, refiner, and consumer of petroleum products, so state-level gas prices reflect a mix of global crude markets, Gulf Coast refining capacity, and local supply chains. Historically, prices in Texas spike around refinery outages, hurricane seasons, and periods of elevated global crude prices, while seasonal driving and statewide taxes and fees create predictable upward pressure at certain times of year.
Market prices for each outcome represent the trading consensus about which price band will contain the annual peak; they update as new information arrives and should be read as a snapshot of market expectations, not a guarantee of any single outcome.
The market close date is listed on the contract page (currently TBD); the winning outcome is determined after the contract’s settlement date based on the peak price observed during the contract period as specified in the market rules.
Settlement uses the official data source and measurement methodology named in the market’s rules—typically a reported statewide average retail price for regular unleaded from the designated reporting agency; consult the contract terms for the exact source and calculation.
Major drivers include sudden refinery outages or declared force-majeure events on the Gulf Coast, hurricane warnings or landfalls affecting supply, and large shifts in international crude markets from geopolitical developments or coordinated production decisions.
Each outcome corresponds to a non-overlapping price band for the annual peak; choose an outcome based on your view of supply/demand risks and how far you expect prices to rise, and consider diversification or position sizing to manage uncertainty.
Past peaks often coincide with Gulf Coast refinery disruptions, major storms, and global crude-price shocks; seasonality (summer driving) and episodic supply constraints are reliable patterns to consider, though the magnitude of any peak depends on the specific combination of events in the current year.