| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above $3.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above $4.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which dollar-per-gallon range New York retail gasoline will reach during the current calendar year. It matters because retail gasoline prices influence household budgets, transportation costs, and regional inflation dynamics.
New York gasoline prices reflect both global crude markets and local Northeast-specific factors such as regional refinery capacity, seasonal demand, and state taxes/mandated fuel blends. Historically, prices tend to peak in summer driving season and spike after supply disruptions (refinery outages, hurricanes, or major pipeline interruptions). Traders in this market incorporate those patterns alongside current news and data.
Market prices express the collective expectations of traders about which of the five price ranges will be realized at settlement; they update as new information arrives and are best read as relative signals of which scenarios the market currently favors rather than as guarantees.
The market's close date is listed on the event page as TBD; the event will resolve according to the timing and procedures specified in the market rules on that page, so check the event rule text for the official close and settlement schedule.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific retail price-per-gallon range for regular gasoline in New York; the exact numeric boundaries for each of the five buckets are shown in the event details on the market page and determine which outcome pays at resolution.
The event rules name the authoritative reference (for example, a published regional retail-price index or government/industry series); consult the market's rule text on the event page to see which published data source will be used for settlement.
Rapid changes can come from unexpected refinery outages in the Northeast, sudden crude-price shocks or geopolitical events, extreme regional weather events, or unanticipated policy announcements affecting fuel taxes or mandated blends.
Use the market to monitor collective expectations about price scenarios and as an input to planning or budgeting; for hedging, review the settlement rules, assess liquidity, size positions relative to actual exposure, and consider professional advice before trading.