| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above $2.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $3.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above $4.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high average retail gasoline prices in Florida will get during the current year; it matters because fuel prices affect household budgets, transportation costs, and local inflation dynamics.
Florida gas prices reflect a mix of global crude markets, regional refinery capacity on the Gulf Coast, seasonal tourism and commuting patterns, and weather-driven disruptions such as hurricanes. State-level factors—taxes, local retail competition, and distribution infrastructure—can amplify or mute those national and international drivers.
Market prices represent the collective judgement of traders about which price-range outcome is most likely and update as new information arrives; they are signals of market expectation, not guarantees of the final result.
The contract defines the exact start and end timestamps; in most cases 'this year' refers to the calendar year for which the market was listed, but you should check the event page and contract text because the market close is listed as TBD.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive price band for Florida's average retail gasoline price at the settlement reference; the event page and contract list the precise numeric thresholds and the criteria used to determine the winning band.
The market's settlement rules specify the official reference data source (common options include AAA, EIA state averages, or third-party price aggregators); check the contract to see which provider and averaging method the market will use for settlement.
Major drivers include hurricanes or storms that force refinery or pipeline shutdowns, unexpected refinery outages or fires, large and sudden crude price movements from geopolitical events or supply decisions, and abrupt policy or tax changes affecting fuel distribution or retail pricing.
Participants can include retail traders, professional speculators, regional businesses hedging fuel exposure, and researchers; higher trading volume generally improves liquidity and the market's ability to reflect new information, so the listed volume is an indicator of current liquidity but not a predictor of future price outcomes.