| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above $4.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $4.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above $5.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above $6.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $6.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $7.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $7.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $7.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $7.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which price range California gasoline will reach at its highest point during the current year. It matters because gasoline peaks affect household budgets, business costs, and policy debate in a state with unique fuel rules and high demand.
California routinely posts different retail gasoline dynamics than the rest of the U.S. because of state-specific taxes, environmental fuel blend requirements, and a relatively concentrated refining system that can amplify local supply disruptions. Global crude markets, seasonal driving patterns, and state policy actions all interact to determine retail pump prices in any given year.
Market prices on this contract represent the collective, continuously updated view of traders about which price range is most likely given available information. Prices move as new data and events arrive; they are indicators of market expectations, not guarantees.
Settlement depends on the official rules posted for this event; consult the event page for the defined reference series (for example, a statewide retail average reported by a public agency or an industry price index). The event page will list the authoritative source used for final settlement.
The market's settlement rules define the measurement window. Typically this will mean the applicable calendar year, but you should verify the exact start and end dates on the event page to confirm how 'this year' is interpreted for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range defined in the market terms; when the settlement price is published by the event's reference source, the single outcome whose range contains that published peak price is the winning outcome. Check the event page for the exact numeric cutoffs and tie-breaking rules.
A local refinery outage can reduce California supply and push market expectations toward higher price-range outcomes, while a tax or regulatory change that increases retail costs would similarly shift expectations. Markets react quickly to credible news about these drivers as traders update positions.
Higher trading volume generally indicates greater participation and liquidity, which can make market prices more responsive to new information and reduce the influence of single large trades. Low volume may mean prices are more volatile or less informative, so check recent volume and order-book depth when interpreting price movements.