| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks how high headline CPI will get during the calendar year, with six discrete outcomes representing different peak ranges. The market matters because the year's CPI peak helps shape monetary policy, financial-market pricing, and public expectations about inflation and living costs.
After a period of elevated inflation and subsequent cooling, the question of the year's CPI high remains central to macro policy and markets. Factors such as supply disruptions, commodity price swings, and labor-market developments have driven past CPI moves and will influence whether the peak is higher or lower. The market aggregates participant views about which monthly reading will become the highest reported for the year.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which CPI peak band will occur and update as new data and news arrive; they are market-implied views, not guarantees. For precise settlement mechanics and the official data series used, consult the event page and exchange rules.
The market is divided into six discrete outcome bands that represent different possible peak levels of headline CPI; the precise cutoffs and labels for each band are listed on the event page. Review the outcome labels and the exchange's settlement rules to see the exact definitions used for this market.
Settlement depends on the official CPI series specified by the exchange (the event page names the source). Exchanges typically rely on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release, so the highest officially published monthly headline CPI within the market's covered period will determine the winning outcome per the market rules.
The event's terms specify whether seasonally adjusted or unadjusted series are used and how revisions are treated; many markets use the published series indicated on the event page and follow the exchange's policies about post-publication revisions, so check those settlement rules before trading.
The market will react strongly around monthly CPI releases, especially when readings are unexpected, and during periods of large commodity moves, major supply shocks, or after notable central-bank communications. Attention often increases late in the year when a new monthly high can still be established.
Participants include macro traders, economists, institutional desks, informed retail traders, and news-driven speculators. Key information drivers are BLS CPI prints, producer prices, employment and wage reports, Fed statements and minutes, and major commodity or geopolitical shocks.