| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $99,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $109,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $119,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $129,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $139,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $149,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $199,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how high Bitcoin will reach during 2026 and aggregates trader expectations about Bitcoin's peak price that year. It matters because the market synthesizes diverse information about macroeconomics, regulation, and crypto adoption into a tradable signal.
Bitcoin has historically shown large intra-year swings driven by monetary policy, regulatory moves, technological adoption, and market structure (exchanges, derivatives, ETFs). The 2026 horizon sits after recent cycles of institutional product launches, evolving regulation, and continued on-chain development, any of which could materially influence a 2026 peak.
Market prices on this contract reflect the collective assessment of participants about which price-band outcome will contain Bitcoin's highest observed price in 2026; prices update as new information arrives and should be read as contingent market expectations rather than guarantees.
The definitive period and measurement window are set in the contract terms on KALSHI; similar contracts typically use the calendar year (00:00 UTC Jan 1 to 23:59:59 UTC Dec 31, 2026) but you should confirm the precise Measurement Period and Settlement Time in this specific listing.
Each outcome represents a price-range (bucket) for Bitcoin's peak in 2026; the contract resolves to whichever bucket contains the reported highest-price value for the measurement period using the exchange's stated settlement methodology — consult the event's outcome definitions on KALSHI to see the exact band boundaries.
Resolution typically relies on a predefined reference price or index and on rules for handling outliers, flash spikes, and exchange anomalies; check the contract's settlement rules to see whether it uses time-weighted averages, consolidated feeds, or specific exchange sources and how it excludes abnormal spikes.
Significant protocol or legal events are handled according to the contract's terms and force majeure or extraordinary-event provisions; exchanges may define alternative settlement mechanisms, postpone settlement, or cancel contracts in extreme cases — review KALSHI's event and arbitration clauses for the exact policy.
Liquidity usually comes from a mix of retail traders, professional speculators, arbitrage funds, and market makers; the listed total volume traded ($2,107,309 as shown) gives a snapshot of activity—higher sustained volume generally improves price discovery and tightens spreads, while low liquidity can make market prices more sensitive to individual trades.