| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ above 6.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ above 6.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ above 6.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| above 6.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 6.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 6.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 6.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 6.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 7.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which range the peak 30-year mortgage rate will reach during the current calendar year, letting traders express expectations about how high borrowing costs will climb. It matters because the peak mortgage rate influences housing affordability, refinancing activity, and broader consumer spending.
Mortgage rates are driven by a mix of monetary policy, long-term Treasury yields, and lender-derived spreads; recent years have seen significant swings driven by inflation shocks, central bank actions, and global risk sentiment. Historical peaks and troughs show that rates can move meaningfully within a year in response to macroeconomic surprises and policy shifts, so the market aggregates those changing views.
Market prices (odds) reflect the collective expectation about which outcome will be the highest observed rate this year and update as new information arrives. Interpret prices as the market-implied likelihood of each discrete outcome, keeping in mind they move with news, data releases, and shifts in trader positioning.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive range for the peak 30-year mortgage rate reached during the calendar year; the market page shows the precise ranges and labels that determine which outcome pays out at settlement.
Closes: TBD means the market does not have a fixed closing date posted; trading will continue until the platform announces a close or until the official resolution window specified in the market rules, so participants should monitor the event page for updates.
The market will resolve to the authoritative source named on the event page (for example, a national mortgage survey or specified aggregator); check the market's resolution text to confirm the exact data series and publication used for the official high-rate observation.
Key movers include Federal Reserve meetings and statements, major inflation releases (CPI/PCE), employment reports, and Treasury auction results; housing-specific reports (existing/new home sales, mortgage applications) can also shift expectations about where peak mortgage rates will land.
Even if Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates also depend on lender risk premia, demand for mortgage-backed securities, hedging costs, and competition among lenders; widening spreads or changes in secondary-market liquidity can push mortgage rates higher or lower relative to Treasury moves, so both components matter for the final peak.