| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest reading recorded in Washington, D.C. on March 9, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public health planning, and short-term weather risks.
Early March in the mid-Atlantic sits in a transitional season when warm air intrusions and late-season cold snaps both occur, so highs can swing substantially from year to year. Markets like this aggregate near-real-time weather forecasts, observations, and trader judgment to express expectations for that single-day outcome.
Market prices reflect the collective information and beliefs of traders about likely weather on that date; they update as new model guidance, observations, and local reports arrive and should be read as a real‑time summary of available information rather than a fixed forecast.
The market's closing time is listed on the platform and may be set to close shortly before the observation window used to define the outcome; check the market page for the current closing time (it is shown as TBD until the platform posts it).
Settlement criteria (the official observing station, time window, and data source used) are specified in the market rules on the event page; typically markets use an authoritative dataset such as local NWS/NOAA observations and a 24‑hour calendar date in local time, but confirm the specific text on this listing.
The six outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature ranges listed on the market page; the outcome that contains the official observed maximum temperature for March 9, 2026 will be the winning outcome, per the event's settlement rules—refer to the outcome labels on the platform for exact boundaries.
The event description names the authoritative source used for settlement (commonly a specified NWS/NOAA station or dataset); the market will be settled according to that named source and its published observation for the date in question.
Traders focus on high-resolution model runs (e.g., convection‑allowing and ensemble forecasts), surface and upper‑air observations, radar/satellite trends showing frontal timing, cloud cover and precipitation forecasts, and any last‑minute station reports that affect the expected daytime maximum.