| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 67° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest observed in Washington, D.C. on March 8, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-interested observers because single-day temperature outcomes are sensitive to last-minute atmospheric changes. Outcomes can be used to hedge weather exposure or to express a view on early‑March warmth or cold in the U.S. mid‑Atlantic.
Washington, D.C. sits where northern cold air and southern warmth often compete in early March, so single‑day maximums can swing widely depending on frontal timing and air‑mass origin. This Kalshi market offers six discrete outcome buckets for that day’s maximum temperature and has attracted measurable trading interest (total volume traded: $8,055) as forecasts evolve. Historical variability in early March means monitoring short‑range weather models is particularly important for this event.
Market prices summarize current trader expectations and update as forecasts, observations, and model runs change; interpret prices as time‑sensitive signals rather than fixed probabilities. For final resolution, follow the market’s stated data source and rules on the Kalshi listing.
The market close time is shown on the Kalshi listing (currently TBD); the outcome will be determined after the official temperature observations for March 8, 2026 are available and Kalshi posts the final settlement according to the market rules.
The exact station and data source are specified in the market’s resolution clause on the Kalshi page; Kalshi typically cites an authoritative meteorological provider (see the market rules for the designated station and dataset to be used for settlement).
The market listing displays six discrete outcome buckets that partition possible maximum temperatures for March 8, 2026; consult the Kalshi event page to see the exact numeric ranges and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
‘Highest temperature’ refers to the maximum observed air temperature for March 8 at the designated official station during the local calendar day; the market’s resolution text specifies any rounding rules and whether local standard or daylight saving time is used—check that text for precise details.
Monitor short‑range NWP model runs and ensemble spread for frontal timing, national weather service forecast updates, trends in overnight minimums (which affect daytime maximum potential), cloud cover/insolation forecasts, and any updates on snow cover or precipitation that would suppress daytime warming.