| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or below | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $987 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain the highest observed temperature in Washington, D.C., on March 7, 2026. Outcomes matter for people and businesses exposed to weather risk (energy, transportation, event planning) and reflect how forecasts evolve as the date approaches.
Early March in the mid-Atlantic is a transitional period with high variability: mild air masses can produce unseasonably warm days, while cold intrusions or cloud cover can keep highs near winter-like values. Synoptic features (frontal passages, coastal systems), local factors (urban heat island, proximity to the Potomac and Atlantic), and the choice of observing station all influence the reported maximum temperature for the day.
Market prices aggregate trader views about which temperature bin is most likely to contain the day's maximum and update as new forecast information arrives. Treat prices as a real-time summary of market sentiment, and always consult the contract text for the authoritative resolution rules.
The contract's resolution clause names the official observing source; most weather markets use an official NWS/NOAA observing station for Washington, D.C. Traders should read the contract to confirm the specified station and dataset that will be used for resolution.
Resolution generally uses the calendar day as defined in local time for the specified station (00:00–23:59 local time), but you must check the contract for the precise time convention the market uses.
The market is divided into six mutually exclusive temperature ranges (bins) that together cover all possible highest-temperature outcomes for that day; see the market page or contract for the exact bin boundaries and labels.
Resolution typically occurs after the official observing station publishes its daily summary; timing can range from the same day to a few days later depending on the reporting schedule and the exchange's settlement procedures, so consult the contract for the exchange's resolution timeline.
Follow numerical weather prediction model trends (ensemble and deterministic), NWS forecast discussions and updates, satellite and surface observations near the specified station, and any watches/warnings that indicate frontal passages or coastal impacts—changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation have the biggest short-term effect on maximum temperatures.