| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° to 51° | 33% | 26¢ | 33¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 40% | 42¢ | 49¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Washington, D.C., on March 6, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions like energy use, event planning, and short-term risk management.
The contract offers six discrete outcomes covering different temperature ranges for a single calendar day in Washington, D.C. One-day weather contracts like this combine short‑term meteorology (model runs, fronts) with local factors (urban heat island, snow cover) and sit against a backdrop of multi‑decadal climate variability.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregate expectations about which temperature range the official observation will fall into; they update as forecasts, observations, and model ensembles change in the days and hours before March 6, 2026.
Settlement typically uses the single local calendar day specified by the contract (a 24‑hour window from 00:00 to 23:59 local time or as otherwise defined). Confirm the event page for the contract’s defined time zone and exact window.
The contract’s rules specify the official observing station and dataset used for settlement. Consult the event page or settlement terms to see which National Weather Service/NOAA station or dataset is the authoritative source.
Close time is set by the exchange and shown on the event page; it may close before or on the observation day. Check the event details for the precise trade‑close timestamp.
The exchange follows its published settlement policy: that may include using corrected official data, an alternate predefined source, or an arbitration procedure. Review the settlement policy on the event page for the exact fallback rules.
Traders monitor model runs (GFS/ECMWF and ensembles), mesoscale forecasts, surface observations, cloud and precipitation trends, frontal timing, and any changes to snow cover or wind direction that can materially shift daytime heating.