| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° or below | 32% | 25¢ | 33¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 24% | 18¢ | 24¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 39% | 34¢ | 38¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 10% | 10¢ | 15¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the highest observed temperature in Washington, D.C., on March 5, 2026; it matters for traders and observers who want to express views or hedge on short‑term weather outcomes in the DC metro area.
Early March in Washington, D.C. is a transitional time between winter and spring, with typical daytime highs often in the 40s–50s°F but frequent interannual variability driven by synoptic weather systems. Long‑term warming trends have shifted the distribution of daily extremes, increasing the relative chance of unusually warm March days compared with mid‑20th century norms. This market turns those meteorological and climatological inputs into discrete, tradable outcomes that resolve to an official observed value.
Market odds are a live aggregation of traders' views based on the latest forecast models, surface observations, and news; they move as new information arrives. Treat the market as a real‑time signal of collective expectation, not as a deterministic outcome.
The market settles to the official observing station and dataset specified in the event rules; that will typically be the National Weather Service‐designated station for the D.C. area. Consult the event's settlement specification to see the exact station name and identifier used for resolution.
The market uses the local civil date and the time window stated in the event rules (commonly 00:00–23:59 local time at the official station). Check the event's settlement details for the precise start/end times and the time zone that will be applied.
Temperatures come from the official station's instruments and reporting protocol (e.g., shielded 2‑meter sensors or automated METAR/AWOS observations) as published by the chosen dataset; the event rules will specify whether preliminary METAR reports or finalized daily summaries are the basis for settlement.
Whether post‑publication corrections affect settlement depends on the market's predefined rules and the chosen data source; some markets accept finalized values only, while others resolve against the first official published observation—check the settlement policy in the event documentation.
Historically, March 5 falls in a transitional period with typical highs often in the 40s–50s°F, but year‑to‑year variability can produce much warmer or colder readings; long‑term warming trends have increased the frequency of unusually warm March days relative to mid‑20th century normals.