| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $902 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest recorded temperature in Washington, DC will be on March 4, 2026; it matters because daily temperature outcomes are used for weather risk management, short-term trading, and local planning. Market prices summarize participants' collective expectations about that day's peak temperature given available forecasts and observations.
Early March in the Washington, DC region is a transitional period when both winter cold and early spring warmth are possible; synoptic-scale systems, fronts, and occasional warm surges can produce large day-to-day swings. Long‑term climate trends and the city's urban heat island modulate the baseline, but individual calendar-day outcomes are dominated by short- to medium-range weather patterns and model forecasts leading up to the date.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate judgment of traders based on current forecasts, observations, and risk preferences and will update as new model runs and observations arrive. Interpret prices as a market consensus signal that can change rapidly when forecast guidance or observations change.
The market's resolution depends on the official rules specified by the contract; typically an official NOAA/NWS observing station named in the event text (for example, a specified station in the DC area) is used as the authoritative source—check the market's resolution terms to see the designated station and dataset.
Most contracts treat the calendar day in local time for the named location (00:00 to 23:59 local time), so confirm the event's resolution language; note that March 4, 2026 falls before the U.S. daylight saving change, so local time in DC will be Eastern Standard Time.
Resolution procedures are set by the event rules: they typically specify measurement precision (e.g., nearest whole degree, tenths) and the authoritative dataset; tie-breaking and adjustments follow that source's official published values—refer to the contract for exact handling.
Price convergence generally accelerates as reliable forecast guidance arrives: broad synoptic signals can be identified roughly a week out, but confidence and intra-day variability usually increase 1–3 days before the target date as high-resolution models and observations refine timing and magnitude.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and helps identify whether a given forecast represents an anomaly, but single-day outcomes are heavily influenced by current synoptic conditions—use climatology to contextualize forecasts, not as a definitive predictor of this specific date.