| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 58% | 53¢ | 59¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 5% | 5¢ | 7¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 39% | 40¢ | 46¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. on March 3, 2026. It matters because it aggregates expectations about a specific, observable weather outcome and can signal how forecasts and short-term climate variability are aligning for that date.
Early March in Washington, D.C. is a transitional period: some years still see near-winter conditions while others produce springlike warmth. Daily extremes on a single date can be driven by the timing of synoptic-scale features (frontal passages, warm advection) layered on top of longer-term seasonal and climate trends. Historical records and recent seasonal anomalies provide useful context but do not determine a single-day outcome.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about which temperature range will be observed at the official reporting location on March 3, 2026; they are indicators of consensus and change in real time, not guarantees of what will occur.
This market has six discrete outcomes; each corresponds to a specific temperature range for the highest temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. on March 3, 2026. See the contract description for the exact numeric ranges that define each outcome.
The event resolves to the official observation specified in the market's resolution rules on the exchange (typically an NWS-designated station or official weather-monitoring dataset). Check the event's resolution section on the platform to confirm the exact station and data source used for settlement.
The highest temperature is assessed over the calendar day indicated in the event rules—normally from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the official reporting station. Refer to the market's published rules for the precise timezone and measurement interval.
Settlement follows the exchange's resolution procedures: if observations are missing or later corrected, the market uses the official corrected value or fallback source specified in the rules. Settlement timing may be delayed until the designated authoritative dataset is finalized per the platform's dispute and verification window.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the platform will post the final trading cutoff. Settlement occurs after the official highest temperature for March 3, 2026 is published and any prescribed verification period ends, following the exchange's standard settlement and payout procedures.