| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, DC on March 29, 2026. Outcomes provide a real‑time consensus expectation about that single calendar‑day weather metric, useful for operational planning and weather risk assessment.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mid‑Atlantic when temperatures can swing between cool and unseasonably warm depending on the position of large‑scale weather systems. Historical March 29 values have varied year to year, and short‑term model forecasts, frontal timing, and local effects (urban heat island, cloud cover) typically drive day‑to‑day differences. Markets like this resolve to an official observing source and reflect changing forecasts as the event date approaches.
Market prices represent the collective market view about which temperature range will be the day's maximum and will move as new numerical model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as indicators of relative likelihood among outcomes, remembering they update in real time as information changes.
The contract refers to the maximum air temperature recorded within the local calendar day on March 29, 2026, at the official observing location specified by the market. Check the market's resolution rules for the precise definition, including measurement height and time zone used.
The market will resolve using the official data source named in its resolution rules (commonly an official NOAA/NWS reporting station for the Washington, DC area). If the station or source is not already listed, the exchange will publish the designated source before settlement.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; the market will announce a specific close time ahead of the event. Finalization occurs after the official observing data for March 29 is available and any allowable post‑event corrections per the exchange’s resolution policy have been applied.
Traders update positions as deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., global and high‑resolution forecasts), satellite and radar trends, and surface observations refine expectations for temperature, cloud cover, and frontal timing; late model shifts can materially change which outcome the market favors.
Resolution will follow the exchange’s published data‑error and contingency policies: this may include using corrected archived data, an alternate official station specified in the rules, or delaying settlement until reliable data are available. Consult the market’s resolution text for exact procedures.