| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be recorded as the highest temperature in Washington, D.C. on March 28, 2026. It matters for traders and stakeholders who want to express or hedge short-term weather exposure and for those tracking seasonal variability.
Late March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic, so day-to-day outcomes can vary widely depending on whether a cold front or warm ridge is in place. Historical context shows substantial interannual variability driven by synoptic-scale patterns; local urban effects and recent temperature trends can also shift expectations.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about the official maximum temperature recorded that day, based on forecasts, observations, and climatology. Always check the market page for the listed settlement source and the exact outcome bins before interpreting prices.
The market will settle to the value recorded by the official observing source specified in the event rules; check the event page for the designated station and authoritative data provider that will be used for settlement.
Settlement typically occurs after the observation day once the designated agency publishes its official daily maximum; exact timing depends on the market's settlement procedure and the data provider's publication schedule—see the event page for details.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins defining ranges for the highest recorded temperature on March 28, 2026; the event page lists the precise bin boundaries and labels for each outcome.
Watch medium-range model runs and ensemble spreads (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), regional high-resolution forecasts, surface observations near the designated station, and official NWS forecast products and short-range updates that address frontal timing and cloud/precipitation trends.
Yes. Instrument maintenance, station relocations, metadata corrections, or data-quality issues can affect the official record; the market will follow the designated official source and any published corrections noted by that provider.