| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest temperature recorded in Washington, D.C., on March 26, 2026. It matters because near-term temperature outcomes affect local energy demand, public planning, and serve as a test of forecast skill.
Washington, D.C. sits in a mid‑Atlantic zone where late‑March weather can range from chilly, wintry conditions to early spring warmth depending on the path of synoptic systems. Day‑to‑day variability is high in March, and long‑term warming trends have shifted seasonal baselines and the frequency of warm spells. Historical variability and current climatology provide important context when evaluating this single‑day outcome.
Market odds summarize the collective expectations of traders based on current forecasts, models, and observations and will update as new information arrives. Treat them as a real‑time consensus signal about which temperature outcomes participants expect, not as a permanent prediction.
Settlement uses the official observing site named in the contract; check the event's settlement rules on the market page to see which NOAA/NWS station or reporting location has been designated as the reference.
The market will use the 24‑hour period specified in the contract (typically local 00:00 to 23:59 on March 26, 2026 at the designated station); confirm the event page for the precise local timezone and measurement interval used for settlement.
Settlement procedures for data gaps are defined in the contract; common practice is to rely on the official post‑processed NOAA/NWS or NCEI record and any fallback rules listed on the event page, so review the market's settlement policy for exact handling.
Short‑range high‑resolution models (HRRR, NAM), global models (GFS, ECMWF), NWS forecast discussions, and mesoscale analyses typically drive market movement as they refine timing of fronts, clouds, and precipitation that control daytime highs.
Traders often respond gradually as medium‑range guidance becomes available, with more concentrated activity in the 48–24 hours leading up to the target day as high‑resolution forecasts and observations reduce uncertainty; exact timing depends on liquidity and new forecast information.