| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves to the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. on March 24, 2026; it matters because temperature outcomes influence weather-sensitive decisions and reflect short-term climate variability.
Washington, D.C. sits in a mid-Atlantic climate zone where late-March conditions can swing from cool to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic patterns. Long-term warming trends raise the baseline for extremes, but individual daily maxima are driven mainly by short-term weather systems such as cold fronts, warm-air advection, and cloud cover. Markets like this use official observational data to settle discrete outcomes for a single calendar date.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature outcome will occur; interpret them as the market's consensus view at any given time rather than as a fixed forecast. Because weather can change quickly, odds can move rapidly as new observations and model guidance arrive.
The market will settle to the specific official data source named in the event's settlement rules—typically an NWS/NOAA official observing station or a designated metropolitan station. Check the event's settlement specification on the market page to see the exact source.
Highest temperature is normally taken from the 24-hour local calendar day (midnight to 11:59 p.m. local time) at the designated observing site; confirm the exact start/end times in the market's settlement details.
Rounding and tie-breaking procedures are set by the event's official settlement rules; they typically reference the reporting resolution of the observational dataset (e.g., tenths or whole degrees) and a defined tie-breaking protocol—review the settlement rules for the precise method.
New model runs, satellite updates, and surface observations that change the expected synoptic setup (e.g., timing of a front or cloud cover) can shift expectations quickly; market prices may move as traders incorporate fresh forecast information and nowcasts.
Late March is climatologically early spring with variable conditions—periods of cool, unsettled weather and occasional warm spells are both common. Long-term warming trends have raised typical springtime baselines, but individual daily maxima are still strongly controlled by transient weather systems.